threat-mitigation-mapping

# Threat Mitigation Mapping

Connect threats to controls for effective security planning.

## When to Use This Skill

- Prioritizing security investments
- Creating remediation roadmaps
- Validating control coverage
- Designing defense-in-depth
- Security architecture review
- Risk treatment planning

## Core Concepts

### 1. Control Categories

Preventive ────► Stop attacks before they occur
   │              (Firewall, Input validation)
   │
Detective ─────► Identify attacks in progress
   │              (IDS, Log monitoring)
   │
Corrective ────► Respond and recover from attacks
                  (Incident response, Backup restore)

### 2. Control Layers

| Layer | Examples |
| --------------- | ------------------------------------ |
| **Network** | Firewall, WAF, DDoS protection |
| **Application** | Input validation, authentication |
| **Data** | Encryption, access controls |
| **Endpoint** | EDR, patch management |
| **Process** | Security training, incident response |

### 3. Defense in Depth

┌──────────────────────┐
                    │      Perimeter       │ ← Firewall, WAF
                    │   ┌──────────────┐   │
                    │   │   Network    │   │ ← Segmentation, IDS
                    │   │  ┌────────┐  │   │
                    │   │  │  Host  │  │   │ ← EDR, Hardening
                    │   │  │ ┌────┐ │  │   │
                    │   │  │ │App │ │  │   │ ← Auth, Validation
                    │   │  │ │Data│ │  │   │ ← Encryption
                    │   │  │ └────┘ │  │   │
                    │   │  └────────┘  │   │
                    │   └──────────────┘   │
                    └──────────────────────┘

## Templates

### Template 1: Mitigation Model

from dataclasses import dataclass, field
from enum import Enum
from typing import List, Dict, Optional, Set
from datetime import datetime

class ControlType(Enum):
    PREVENTIVE = "preventive"
    DETECTIVE = "detective"
    CORRECTIVE = "corrective"


class ControlLayer(Enum):
    NETWORK = "network"
    APPLICATION = "application"
    DATA = "data"
    ENDPOINT = "endpoint"
    PROCESS = "process"
    PHYSICAL = "physical"


class ImplementationStatus(Enum):
    NOT_IMPLEMENTED = "not_implemented"
    PARTIAL = "partial"
    IMPLEMENTED = "implemented"
    VERIFIED = "verified"


class Effectiveness(Enum):
    NONE = 0
    LOW = 1
    MEDIUM = 2
    HIGH = 3
    VERY_HIGH = 4


@dataclass
class SecurityControl:
    id: str
    name: str
    description: str
    control_type: ControlType
    layer: ControlLayer
    effectiveness: Effectiveness
    implementation_cost: str  # Low, Medium, High
    maintenance_cost: str
    status: ImplementationStatus = ImplementationStatus.NOT_IMPLEMENTED
    mitigates_threats: List[str] = field(default_factory=list)
    dependencies: List[str] = field(default_factory=list)
    technologies: List[str] = field(default_factory=list)
    compliance_refs: List[str] = field(default_factory=list)

    def coverage_score(self) -> float:
        """Calculate coverage score based on status and effectiveness."""
        status_multiplier = {
            ImplementationStatus.NOT_IMPLEMENTED: 0.0,
            ImplementationStatus.PARTIAL: 0.5,
            ImplementationStatus.IMPLEMENTED: 0.8,
            ImplementationStatus.VERIFIED: 1.0,
        }
        return self.effectiveness.value * status_multiplier[self.status]


@dataclass
class Threat:
    id: str
    name: str
    category: str  # STRIDE category
    description: str
    impact: str  # Critical, High, Medium, Low
    likelihood: str
    risk_score: float


@dataclass
class MitigationMapping:
    threat: Threat
    controls: List[SecurityControl]
    residual_risk: str = "Unknown"
    notes: str = ""

    def calculate_coverage(self) -> float:
        """Calculate how well controls cover the threat."""
        if not self.controls:
            return 0.0

        total_score = sum(c.coverage_score() for c in self.controls)
        max_possible = len(self.controls) * Effectiveness.VERY_HIGH.value

        return (total_score / max_possible) * 100 if max_possible > 0 else 0

    def has_defense_in_depth(self) -> bool:
        """Check if multiple layers are covered."""
        layers = set(c.layer for c in self.controls if c.status != ImplementationStatus.NOT_IMPLEMENTED)
        return len(layers) >= 2

    def has_control_diversity(self) -> bool:
        """Check if multiple control types are present."""
        types = set(c.control_type for c in self.controls if c.status != ImplementationStatus.NOT_IMPLEMENTED)
        return len(types) >= 2


@dataclass
class MitigationPlan:
    name: str
    threats: List[Threat] = field(default_factory=list)
    controls: List[SecurityControl] = field(default_factory=list)
    mappings: List[MitigationMapping] = field(default_factory=list)

    def get_unmapped_threats(self) -> List[Threat]:
        """Find threats without mitigations."""
        mapped_ids = {m.threat.id for m in self.mappings}
        return [t for t in self.threats if t.id not in mapped_ids]

    def get_control_coverage(self) -> Dict[str, float]:
        """Get coverage percentage for each threat."""
        return {
            m.threat.id: m.calculate_coverage()
            for m in self.mappings
        }

    def get_gaps(self) -> List[Dict]:
        """Identify mitigation gaps."""
        gaps = []
        for mapping in self.mappings:
            coverage = mapping.calculate_coverage()
            if coverage < 50:
                gaps.append({
                    "threat": mapping.threat.id,
                    "threat_name": mapping.threat.name,
                    "coverage": coverage,
                    "issue": "Insufficient control coverage",
                    "recommendation": "Add more controls or improve existing ones"
                })
            if not mapping.has_defense_in_depth():
                gaps.append({
                    "threat": mapping.threat.id,
                    "threat_name": mapping.threat.name,
                    "coverage": coverage,
                    "issue": "No defense in depth",
                    "recommendation": "Add controls at different layers"
                })
            if not mapping.has_control_diversity():
                gaps.append({
                    "threat": mapping.threat.id,
                    "threat_name": mapping.threat.name,
                    "coverage": coverage,
                    "issue": "No control diversity",
                    "recommendation": "Add detective/corrective controls"
                })
        return gaps

### Template 2: Control Library

class ControlLibrary:
    """Library of standard security controls."""

    STANDARD_CONTROLS = {
        # Authentication Controls
        "AUTH-001": SecurityControl(
            id="AUTH-001",
            name="Multi-Factor Authentication",
            description="Require MFA for all user authentication",
            control_type=ControlType.PREVENTIVE,
            layer=ControlLayer.APPLICATION,
            effectiveness=Effectiveness.HIGH,
            implementation_cost="Medium",
            maintenance_cost="Low",
            mitigates_threats=["SPOOFING"],
            technologies=["TOTP", "WebAuthn", "SMS OTP"],
            compliance_refs=["PCI-DSS 8.3", "NIST 800-63B"]
        ),
        "AUTH-002": SecurityControl(
            id="AUTH-002",
            name="Account Lockout Policy",
            description="Lock accounts after failed authentication attempts",
            control_type=ControlType.PREVENTIVE,
            layer=ControlLayer.APPLICATION,
            effectiveness=Effectiveness.MEDIUM,
            implementation_cost="Low",
            maintenance_cost="Low",
            mitigates_threats=["SPOOFING"],
            technologies=["Custom implementation"],
            compliance_refs=["PCI-DSS 8.1.6"]
        ),

        # Input Validation Controls
        "VAL-001": SecurityControl(
            id="VAL-001",
            name="Input Validation Framework",
            description="Validate and sanitize all user input",
            control_type=ControlType.PREVENTIVE,
            layer=ControlLayer.APPLICATION,
            effectiveness=Effectiveness.HIGH,
            implementation_cost="Medium",
            maintenance_cost="Medium",
            mitigates_threats=["TAMPERING", "INJECTION"],
            technologies=["Joi", "Yup", "Pydantic"],
            compliance_refs=["OWASP ASVS V5"]
        ),
        "VAL-002": SecurityControl(
            id="VAL-002",
            name="Web Application Firewall",
            description="Deploy WAF to filter malicious requests",
            control_type=ControlType.PREVENTIVE,
            layer=ControlLayer.NETWORK,
            effectiveness=Effectiveness.MEDIUM,
            implementation_cost="Medium",
            maintenance_cost="Medium",
            mitigates_threats=["TAMPERING", "INJECTION", "DOS"],
            technologies=["AWS WAF", "Cloudflare", "ModSecurity"],
            compliance_refs=["PCI-DSS 6.6"]
        ),

        # Encryption Controls
        "ENC-001": SecurityControl(
            id="ENC-001",
            name="Data Encryption at Rest",
            description="Encrypt sensitive data in storage",
            control_type=ControlType.PREVENTIVE,
            layer=ControlLayer.DATA,
            effectiveness=Effectiveness.HIGH,
            implementation_cost="Medium",
            maintenance_cost="Low",
            mitigates_threats=["INFORMATION_DISCLOSURE"],
            technologies=["AES-256", "KMS", "HSM"],
            compliance_refs=["PCI-DSS 3.4", "GDPR Art. 32"]
        ),
        "ENC-002": SecurityControl(
            id="ENC-002",
            name="TLS Encryption",
            description="Encrypt data in transit using TLS 1.3",
            control_type=ControlType.PREVENTIVE,
            layer=ControlLayer.NETWORK,
            effectiveness=Effectiveness.HIGH,
            implementation_cost="Low",
            maintenance_cost="Low",
            mitigates_threats=["INFORMATION_DISCLOSURE", "TAMPERING"],
            technologies=["TLS 1.3", "Certificate management"],
            compliance_refs=["PCI-DSS 4.1", "HIPAA"]
        ),

        # Logging Controls
        "LOG-001": SecurityControl(
            id="LOG-001",
            name="Security Event Logging",
            description="Log all security-relevant events",
            control_type=ControlType.DETECTIVE,
            layer=ControlLayer.APPLICATION,
            effectiveness=Effectiveness.MEDIUM,
            implementation_cost="Low",
            maintenance_cost="Medium",
            mitigates_threats=["REPUDIATION"],
            technologies=["ELK Stack", "Splunk", "CloudWatch"],
            compliance_refs=["PCI-DSS 10.2", "SOC2"]
        ),
        "LOG-002": SecurityControl(
            id="LOG-002",
            name="Log Integrity Protection",
            description="Protect logs from tampering",
            control_type=ControlType.PREVENTIVE,
            layer=ControlLayer.DATA,
            effectiveness=Effectiveness.MEDIUM,
            implementation_cost="Medium",
            maintenance_cost="Low",
            mitigates_threats=["REPUDIATION", "TAMPERING"],
            technologies=["Immutable storage", "Log signing"],
            compliance_refs=["PCI-DSS 10.5"]
        ),

        # Access Control
        "ACC-001": SecurityControl(
            id="ACC-001",
            name="Role-Based Access Control",
            description="Implement RBAC for authorization",
            control_type=ControlType.PREVENTIVE,
            layer=ControlLayer.APPLICATION,
            effectiveness=Effectiveness.HIGH,
            implementation_cost="Medium",
            maintenance_cost="Medium",
            mitigates_threats=["ELEVATION_OF_PRIVILEGE", "INFORMATION_DISCLOSURE"],
            technologies=["RBAC", "ABAC", "Policy engines"],
            compliance_refs=["PCI-DSS 7.1", "SOC2"]
        ),

        # Availability Controls
        "AVL-001": SecurityControl(
            id="AVL-001",
            name="Rate Limiting",
            description="Limit request rates to prevent abuse",
            control_type=ControlType.PREVENTIVE,
            layer=ControlLayer.APPLICATION,
            effectiveness=Effectiveness.MEDIUM,
            implementation_cost="Low",
            maintenance_cost="Low",
            mitigates_threats=["DENIAL_OF_SERVICE"],
            technologies=["API Gateway", "Redis", "Token bucket"],
            compliance_refs=["OWASP API Security"]
        ),
        "AVL-002": SecurityControl(
            id="AVL-002",
            name="DDoS Protection",
            description="Deploy DDoS mitigation services",
            control_type=ControlType.PREVENTIVE,
            layer=ControlLayer.NETWORK,
            effectiveness=Effectiveness.HIGH,
            implementation_cost="High",
            maintenance_cost="Medium",
            mitigates_threats=["DENIAL_OF_SERVICE"],
            technologies=["Cloudflare", "AWS Shield", "Akamai"],
            compliance_refs=["NIST CSF"]
        ),
    }

    def get_controls_for_threat(self, threat_category: str) -> List[SecurityControl]:
        """Get all controls that mitigate a threat category."""
        return [
            c for c in self.STANDARD_CONTROLS.values()
            if threat_category in c.mitigates_threats
        ]

    def get_controls_by_layer(self, layer: ControlLayer) -> List[SecurityControl]:
        """Get controls for a specific layer."""
        return [c for c in self.STANDARD_CONTROLS.values() if c.layer == layer]

    def get_control(self, control_id: str) -> Optional[SecurityControl]:
        """Get a specific control by ID."""
        return self.STANDARD_CONTROLS.get(control_id)

    def recommend_controls(
        self,
        threat: Threat,
        existing_controls: List[str]
    ) -> List[SecurityControl]:
        """Recommend additional controls for a threat."""
        available = self.get_controls_for_threat(threat.category)
        return [c for c in available if c.id not in existing_controls]

### Template 3: Mitigation Analysis

class MitigationAnalyzer:
    """Analyze and optimize mitigation strategies."""

    def __init__(self, plan: MitigationPlan, library: ControlLibrary):
        self.plan = plan
        self.library = library

    def calculate_overall_risk_reduction(self) -> float:
        """Calculate overall risk reduction percentage."""
        if not self.plan.mappings:
            return 0.0

        weighted_coverage = 0
        total_weight = 0

        for mapping in self.plan.mappings:
            # Weight by threat risk score
            weight = mapping.threat.risk_score
            coverage = mapping.calculate_coverage()
            weighted_coverage += weight * coverage
            total_weight += weight

        return weighted_coverage / total_weight if total_weight > 0 else 0

    def get_critical_gaps(self) -> List[Dict]:
        """Find critical gaps that need immediate attention."""
        gaps = self.plan.get_gaps()
        critical_threats = {t.id for t in self.plan.threats if t.impact == "Critical"}

        return [g for g in gaps if g["threat"] in critical_threats]

    def optimize_budget(
        self,
        budget: float,
        cost_map: Dict[str, float]
    ) -> List[SecurityControl]:
        """Select controls that maximize risk reduction within budget."""
        # Simple greedy approach - can be replaced with optimization algorithm
        recommended = []
        remaining_budget = budget
        unmapped = self.plan.get_unmapped_threats()

        # Sort controls by effectiveness/cost ratio
        all_controls = list(self.library.STANDARD_CONTROLS.values())
        controls_with_value = []

        for control in all_controls:
            if control.status == ImplementationStatus.NOT_IMPLEMENTED:
                cost = cost_map.get(control.id, float('inf'))
                if cost <= remaining_budget:
                    # Calculate value as threats covered * effectiveness / cost
                    threats_covered = len([
                        t for t in unmapped
                        if t.category in control.mitigates_threats
                    ])
                    if threats_covered > 0:
                        value = (threats_covered * control.effectiveness.value) / cost
                        controls_with_value.append((control, value, cost))

        # Sort by value (higher is better)
        controls_with_value.sort(key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True)

        for control, value, cost in controls_with_value:
            if cost <= remaining_budget:
                recommended.append(control)
                remaining_budget -= cost

        return recommended

    def generate_roadmap(self) -> List[Dict]:
        """Generate implementation roadmap by priority."""
        roadmap = []
        gaps = self.plan.get_gaps()

        # Phase 1: Critical threats with low coverage
        phase1 = []
        for gap in gaps:
            mapping = next(
                (m for m in self.plan.mappings if m.threat.id == gap["threat"]),
                None
            )
            if mapping and mapping.threat.impact == "Critical":
                controls = self.library.get_controls_for_threat(mapping.threat.category)
                phase1.extend([
                    {
                        "threat": gap["threat"],
                        "control": c.id,
                        "control_name": c.name,
                        "phase": 1,
                        "priority": "Critical"
                    }
                    for c in controls
                    if c.status == ImplementationStatus.NOT_IMPLEMENTED
                ])

        roadmap.extend(phase1[:5])  # Top 5 for phase 1

        # Phase 2: High impact threats
        phase2 = []
        for gap in gaps:
            mapping = next(
                (m for m in self.plan.mappings if m.threat.id == gap["threat"]),
                None
            )
            if mapping and mapping.threat.impact == "High":
                controls = self.library.get_controls_for_threat(mapping.threat.category)
                phase2.extend([
                    {
                        "threat": gap["threat"],
                        "control": c.id,
                        "control_name": c.name,
                        "phase": 2,
                        "priority": "High"
                    }
                    for c in controls
                    if c.status == ImplementationStatus.NOT_IMPLEMENTED
                ])

        roadmap.extend(phase2[:5])  # Top 5 for phase 2

        return roadmap

    def defense_in_depth_analysis(self) -> Dict[str, List[str]]:
        """Analyze defense in depth coverage."""
        layer_coverage = {layer.value: [] for layer in ControlLayer}

        for mapping in self.plan.mappings:
            for control in mapping.controls:
                if control.status in [ImplementationStatus.IMPLEMENTED, ImplementationStatus.VERIFIED]:
                    layer_coverage[control.layer.value].append(control.id)

        return layer_coverage

    def generate_report(self) -> str:
        """Generate comprehensive mitigation report."""
        risk_reduction = self.calculate_overall_risk_reduction()
        gaps = self.plan.get_gaps()
        critical_gaps = self.get_critical_gaps()
        layer_coverage = self.defense_in_depth_analysis()

        report = f"""
# Threat Mitigation Report

## Executive Summary
- **Overall Risk Reduction:** {risk_reduction:.1f}%
- **Total Threats:** {len(self.plan.threats)}
- **Total Controls:** {len(self.plan.controls)}
- **Identified Gaps:** {len(gaps)}
- **Critical Gaps:** {len(critical_gaps)}

## Defense in Depth Coverage
{self._format_layer_coverage(layer_coverage)}

## Critical Gaps Requiring Immediate Action
{self._format_gaps(critical_gaps)}

## Recommendations
{self._format_recommendations()}

## Implementation Roadmap
{self._format_roadmap()}
"""
        return report

    def _format_layer_coverage(self, coverage: Dict[str, List[str]]) -> str:
        lines = []
        for layer, controls in coverage.items():
            status = "✓" if controls else "✗"
            lines.append(f"- {layer}: {status} ({len(controls)} controls)")
        return "\n".join(lines)

    def _format_gaps(self, gaps: List[Dict]) -> str:
        if not gaps:
            return "No critical gaps identified."
        lines = []
        for gap in gaps:
            lines.append(f"- **{gap['threat_name']}**: {gap['issue']}")
            lines.append(f"  - Coverage: {gap['coverage']:.1f}%")
            lines.append(f"  - Recommendation: {gap['recommendation']}")
        return "\n".join(lines)

    def _format_recommendations(self) -> str:
        recommendations = []
        layer_coverage = self.defense_in_depth_analysis()

        for layer, controls in layer_coverage.items():
            if not controls:
                recommendations.append(f"- Add {layer} layer controls")

        gaps = self.plan.get_gaps()
        if any(g["issue"] == "No control diversity" for g in gaps):
            recommendations.append("- Add more detective and corrective controls")

        return "\n".join(recommendations) if recommendations else "Current coverage is adequate."

    def _format_roadmap(self) -> str:
        roadmap = self.generate_roadmap()
        if not roadmap:
            return "No additional controls recommended at this time."

        lines = []
        current_phase = 0
        for item in roadmap:
            if item["phase"] != current_phase:
                current_phase = item["phase"]
                lines.append(f"\n### Phase {current_phase}")
            lines.append(f"- [{item['priority']}] {item['control_name']} (for {item['threat']})")

        return "\n".join(lines)

### Template 4: Control Effectiveness Testing

from dataclasses import dataclass
from typing import List, Callable, Any
import asyncio

@dataclass
class ControlTest:
    control_id: str
    test_name: str
    test_function: Callable[[], bool]
    expected_result: bool
    description: str


class ControlTester:
    """Test control effectiveness."""

    def __init__(self):
        self.tests: List[ControlTest] = []
        self.results: List[Dict] = []

    def add_test(self, test: ControlTest) -> None:
        self.tests.append(test)

    async def run_tests(self) -> List[Dict]:
        """Run all control tests."""
        self.results = []

        for test in self.tests:
            try:
                result = test.test_function()
                passed = result == test.expected_result
                self.results.append({
                    "control_id": test.control_id,
                    "test_name": test.test_name,
                    "passed": passed,
                    "actual_result": result,
                    "expected_result": test.expected_result,
                    "description": test.description,
                    "error": None
                })
            except Exception as e:
                self.results.append({
                    "control_id": test.control_id,
                    "test_name": test.test_name,
                    "passed": False,
                    "actual_result": None,
                    "expected_result": test.expected_result,
                    "description": test.description,
                    "error": str(e)
                })

        return self.results

    def get_effectiveness_score(self, control_id: str) -> float:
        """Calculate effectiveness score for a control."""
        control_results = [r for r in self.results if r["control_id"] == control_id]
        if not control_results:
            return 0.0

        passed = sum(1 for r in control_results if r["passed"])
        return (passed / len(control_results)) * 100

    def generate_test_report(self) -> str:
        """Generate test results report."""
        if not self.results:
            return "No tests have been run."

        total = len(self.results)
        passed = sum(1 for r in self.results if r["passed"])

        report = f"""
# Control Effectiveness Test Report

## Summary
- **Total Tests:** {total}
- **Passed:** {passed}
- **Failed:** {total - passed}
- **Pass Rate:** {(passed/total)*100:.1f}%

## Results by Control
"""
        # Group by control
        controls = {}
        for result in self.results:
            cid = result["control_id"]
            if cid not in controls:
                controls[cid] = []
            controls[cid].append(result)

        for control_id, results in controls.items():
            score = self.get_effectiveness_score(control_id)
            report += f"\n### {control_id} (Effectiveness: {score:.1f}%)\n"
            for r in results:
                status = "✓" if r["passed"] else "✗"
                report += f"- {status} {r['test_name']}\n"
                if r["error"]:
                    report += f"  - Error: {r['error']}\n"

        return report

## Best Practices

### Do's

- **Map all threats** - No threat should be unmapped
- **Layer controls** - Defense in depth is essential
- **Mix control types** - Preventive, detective, corrective
- **Track effectiveness** - Measure and improve
- **Review regularly** - Controls degrade over time

### Don'ts

- **Don't rely on single controls** - Single points of failure
- **Don't ignore cost** - ROI matters
- **Don't skip testing** - Untested controls may fail
- **Don't set and forget** - Continuous improvement
- **Don't ignore people/process** - Technology alone isn't enough

## Resources

- [NIST Cybersecurity Framework](https://www.nist.gov/cyberframework)
- [CIS Controls](https://www.cisecurity.org/controls)
- [MITRE D3FEND](https://d3fend.mitre.org/)